" New Avenues in Modelling Migration "
Prof. Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton, UK
Abstract:
International migration is one of the most complex and uncertain population processes. Migration flows respond to many unpredictable factors and drivers, and involve high levels of human agency at different stages of migration decisions. Still, our understanding of the mechanisms of migration remains weak due to the fragmented theoretical description, scattered across various disciplines, and presence of many interacting actors with different goals. The situation is further complicated by the lack of common and precise definitions and concepts of migration, and by the inadequacy of available measurement tools. If migration is to be better understood and managed, its complexity and uncertainty need to be openly acknowledged both in the analysis and decision making. For the scientific community, this requires adopting new analytical perspectives and methods, which would address these challenges explicitly. This talk will summarise the most recent advances in statistical and computational modelling of international migration, aimed at its better estimation, prediction and simulation, and propose ways forward for offering more realistic policy support.